5.3.1. Market drivers and growth perspective

Main drivers for the fertilizer demand are the world’s ever growing population’s need for food and fibres (→ growing population) and the growing demand for meat with increasing wealth (as the livestock demand for crops further increases the need)(→ GDP).

Consequently the current economic and financial situation is impacting world agriculture and fertilizer demand. Expecting recovery and growth of GDP¹⁰⁴ and population¹⁰⁵ in Latin and Central America and the Caribbean for the mid and long term future the demand for fertilizer is therefore forecast to be stable and growing.

Urea is a commodity and traded world wide. The world urea market was 148 million metric tons in 2010 and is expected to increase to 171.7 million metric tons in 2015¹⁰⁶ , representing growth of 3.2% per annum. A standard world scale plant for urea production delivers about 1 million ton and would not impact the supply/ demand much.

Urea demand and is dominated by regions with large agricultural economies such as South America, and Asia. Peru imported¹⁰⁷ in 2010 urea products with a value of 110 million US and increased in 2011 to 178 million US what underlies the growth forecast.

Urea production is dominated by regions with low cost gas as feedstock or large absolute demand. Main quantities are produced in Trinidad and Venezuela, Black Sea and Baltic Sea, the Middle East and China, and there are no Urea producing plants in Western South America.

¹⁰⁴ IMF World Economic Outlook October 2012
¹⁰⁵ Population Aging, Is Latin America ready?, edited by David Cotlear, The World Bank, 2011
¹⁰⁶ International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Fertilizer Outlook 2011 – 2015, 2011
¹⁰⁷ Ministerio de Comercio Exterior,