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The project’s ingredients seem to suit a project financing scheme in principle but he project set up is reviewed with respect to the requirements of risk control and risk sharing of a project financing scheme.
| Risk | Project |
|---|---|
| Political/ Country risk | investment environment and the political and legal frame work is stable and supportive |
| Force majeure | Insurance is possible |
| Financial risk | Competitive production is reasonable to assume and so is sufficient Cash flow for debt service; Price volatility has to be encountered |
| Completion risk | a number of capable contractors have been identified Construction Companies and skilled workforce are not unknown in Latin America, as large industrial projects have been built in Chile, Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina. |
| Technology risk | proven many times a number of capable technology providers have been identified |
| Operating risk | Needs only few foreign experts for the first years of operation. Local people to be trained. has been done multiple times |
| Supply risk | availability of natural gas supply as feedstock is depending solely on the tapped reserve and can not be substituted |
| Off take risk | reasonably expected to grow for the long term future on the basis of the mega trend growth of population |
Table 16: Project set up meets requirements of risk control and risk sharing for project financing
Being a risk bearing business failure potential, it might be required to obtain several independent expert opinions on the availability of sufficient quantity of natural gas.
Applying Moody’s criteria for rating project finance schemes (though these criteria are for power generation it shall as be used reference also in the fertilizer case) the key factors for a successful project finance scheme can be answered promising:
| Predictability of Cash Flows Quality & Diversity of Cash Flows |
Price volatility may be further reviewed |
| Competitiveness | Probable |
| Technical and Operating Track Record and Vendor Profile |
Superb technical experience available, proven, mature technology |
| Key Financial Metrics | Requires further evaluation |
Table 17: Applying Moody's rating criteria to the project